A 5% yield on a 30-year municipal bond is an attractive buying point for high-quality, tax-free investors. However, these levels are not always sustainable. Given the market volatility and expectations of future Federal Reserve rate reductions, it isn’t easy to pinpoint the ideal time to invest.
Currently, the long-term insured municipal market is hovering around the 5% yield mark in sectors such as housing, hospitals, charter schools, and municipal utility districts (MUDs). These sectors typically trade at slightly higher yields than school district general obligation (GO) bonds, presenting attractive opportunities due to their pricing dynamics.
While the current landscape in the long-bond Muni market suggests a promising return, investors recognize the need to capitalize quickly, as these levels are fleeting.
A 5% yield appears to be a “sweet spot” for bond investors, especially in high-tax states like New York or California, with taxable equivalent yields exceeding 7%. In addition, as the Federal Reserve works towards its 2% target rate, timing investment decisions will be crucial.
As seasoned investors watch the 10-year Treasury to gauge market yield trends, the rates have been all over the place. Last year, the 10-year rate dipped to 3.62% (9/16/24) from a high of 4.95% the prior year (10/25/23). Five years ago, the low was a meager .52% (8/04/20), while today (6/24/25), it is trading at 4.29% (1)
These historical numbers and the timeline range serve as a reminder that calling the market can be tricky. However, they also underscore the significant value still present in the fixed-income market. While investors look to volatility as a possible opportunity, the focus will shift to the US budget pressures at hand.
As our Administration grapples over budget issues and the cost of US debt, the Treasury Bond market is forecasted to issue up to $1 trillion of additional supply in the second half of the year (2), most likely on the shorter end of the curve. This quantity could put pressure on bond investors if the supply is not well received.
Another area of focus will be on the government’s borrowing capacity under the federal debt ceiling. If the debt ceiling is reached, will the cap be lifted or eliminated, or will borrowing come to a standstill?
Bond investors have much to consider when trying to position themselves to take advantage of current opportunities while also keeping an eye on these critical issues. Market insights can help inform decisions, but there is no substitute for making incremental moves and capitalizing on these attractive returns.
In conclusion, while the current landscape of the municipal bond market presents enticing opportunities, investors must remain vigilant and responsive to the shifting economic environment. The volatility of market rates, the impending supply of Treasury Bonds, and the uncertainties surrounding government budgetary decisions all play a critical role in shaping investment strategies. As seasoned investors know, timing and careful positioning are crucial in capitalizing on these fleeting opportunities.
When it comes to buying bonds, the guidance of an experienced advisor is invaluable. Our team at The DRL Group, with over three decades of experience in bond trading, has successfully navigated clients through extraordinary market circumstances. Our seasoned professionals understand market dynamics, having guided clients through the extremes from the Dot-Com burst to the 2008 Financial Crisis and the COVID-19 Pandemic. Our unparalleled expertise is a crucial asset for investors seeking guidance in these volatile times. Contact us today to leverage our experience to your advantage.
